The numbers that actually matter
Anyone can "feel" they're doing well after a good streak. These figures tell you the objective truth about your system:
- Profit factor = gross profit ÷ gross loss. Above 1 you win; below, you lose. A steady 1.3–1.5 is already solid.
- Expectancy per trade = what you win on average each time you trade. It's the figure: if it's positive and you repeat it with discipline, time works for you.
- Expectancy in R = the above in units of risk. +0.2R means you win on average 20% of what you risk per trade — comparable across accounts of any size.
A common discovery: you can have a low win rate and still be very profitable if your ratio is good (see the 40% / ratio 2 case). And vice versa: a very high win rate with a poor ratio can be a loser. Cross your win rate with the break-even calculator and prepare for variance with the expected losing streak.
Frequently asked questions
How many trades before I can trust the number?
The more the better. Under 30 trades, variance dominates and the numbers mislead. From 50–100 they start to be informative; even so, a short sample from a favourable market regime can overstate your edge.
Do I include commissions and spread?
Yes: use your NET results (costs already deducted). If you enter gross results, your system will look better than it is. Costs are part of the equation — measure them with the real cost calculator.
Is my data sent anywhere?
No. Everything is computed in your browser. No signup, no cookies, no server.