The normal streak that sinks beginners
With a 45% win rate (perfectly profitable if your risk/reward ratio is good), stringing together 6, 7 or 8 losses in a row isn't extreme bad luck: it's expected over a few hundred trades. The problem is that almost nobody is mentally prepared for it. When the streak hits, the beginner concludes "the system stopped working", abandons it, doubles the risk to recover, or jumps to another strategy — right before the statistics turn back around.
Knowing in advance what streak to expect gives you something priceless: the calm to follow your plan when it hurts. The streak doesn't mean you're broken; it means you're a trader with a real win rate, living through normal variance.
What to do with this number
- Size your risk to survive the P95 streak. If you expect up to 8 losses in a row and risk 3% per trade, that's −24% in a bad run. At 1% (see risk management), it's a bearable −8%.
- Don't confuse a streak with failure. Before touching your system, check your journal to see whether the streak falls within what's expected here. It almost always does.
- Look at the other side. Combine it with risk of ruin: the same variance that produces bad streaks is what can blow you up if you over-risk.
Frequently asked questions
Does this assume my trades are independent?
Yes: each trade is modelled as independent with your win rate. In practice, market-regime clustering (correlation between trades) can make streaks even longer — so treat this as a floor, not a ceiling.
Why is the result reproducible?
We use a seeded random generator. With the same inputs you get the same result, so you can trust and compare the number — our executable-truth philosophy.
Is my data sent anywhere?
No. Everything is computed in your browser. No signup, no cookies, no server.