A high win rate ≠ a winning system
One of the most expensive myths in trading is believing that "being right a lot" means making money. It doesn't. What decides whether you win is the combination of how often you're right and how much you win when right vs. how much you lose when wrong (the risk/reward ratio).
With a 2:1 ratio (you win twice what you risk), you only need to be right 34% of the time to break even. With a 1:2 ratio (you risk twice what you win), you need to be right 67% — which is why so many "high win rate" systems end up in the red: they win small many times and give it all back in a single large loss.
Expectancy is the only thing that matters long term: it's what you win (or lose) on average per trade. If it's positive and you repeat it with good risk management, time works for you. If it's negative, no position size saves you — it just changes how fast you lose.
Win rate needed by ratio
| R:R ratio | Win rate to break even | Read |
|---|